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Jeremy Kappell Jeremy Kappell

Jeremy Kappell

Meteorologist, Communicator, and Advocate for Christ

Jeremy and Lisa Ray Jeremy and Lisa Ray

Jeremy and Lisa Ray

Meteorologist, Communicator, and Advocates for Christ

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Kappell Weather Blog

March coming in like a Lamb? Read more

March coming in like a Lamb?

Food Watches have been issued for parts of the Ohio River Valley and Winter Weather Advisories posted for some in the Midwest.  When and how much rain, snow and wind in this update... 


Lisa Ray's Blog!

Detox and Direction Read more

Detox and Direction

Last year at this time,  I was celebrating a milestone birthday with beers and friends. This year, I am celebrating much differently. 








Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Mar 03 2021

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 03 2021 - 12Z Fri Mar 05 2021

...A low pressure system will spread precipitation across the southwestern
to south-central CONUS...

...Elevated to Critical Risks of fire weather are in place for portions of
the Southwest to Southern High Plains...

A surface low pressure system along with an upper-level low are forecast
to move across Southern California into the Four Corners states through
Thursday and into the Southern Plains early Friday. Along this track,
precipitation is forecast to spread across these regions, with rain in the
lower elevations and snow in higher elevations. Snow could accumulate to a
few inches in the mountains of Southern California, the Mogollon Rim, and
Wasatch, while the Central Rockies and San Juan Mountains could see 6-12
inches of snow through Friday morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
forecast for the Southern/Central Plains late Thursday into Friday.

Another threat with this system will be fire danger. An Elevated Risk of
fire weather as well as Red Flag Warnings are in effect for much of
Arizona today. On Thursday, as winds increase and humidity dries out
behind the cold front, a Critical Risk of fire weather is in place for the
Southern High Plains.

Elsewhere, the Southeast should see rain and thunderstorms ending today
after a low pressure system moves away into the Atlantic. Light snow is
possible in the interior Northeast through Thursday, with snow
accumulating to a few inches possible in higher elevations. The Pacific
Northwest can expect precipitation chances to increase late Thursday into
Friday as an upper-level low and frontal system approach.

Temperature-wise, the Northern Plains should continue to see rather mild
temperatures with highs nearing or exceeding 60 degrees over the next
several days, about 20-30 degrees above average. The Southeast can expect
cooler than normal temperatures today, while Thursday will be chillier
than average in the Northeast.

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Mar 03 2021

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 06 2021 - 12Z Wed Mar 10 2021

...Overview and Guidance Evaluation...

Eastern Pacific mean troughing aloft will gradually expand
eastward over the course of the period, eventually including
portions of the western U.S. Features within and ejecting from
this trough will focus multiple episodes of precipitation along
the West Coast with somewhat more moderate totals over the
Interior West and Rockies. By next Tuesday-Wednesday one ejecting
shortwave may generate a significant Plains system along with a
broad precipitation area over the central into east-central U.S.
Meanwhile a shortwave entering the West to start the weekend will
become more diffuse as it traverses the lower 48 though a mean
ridge, temporarily flattening flow slightly which will help push
along an amplified upper trough over the East Coast during the
weekend. Expect a mean ridge to reach the East by next Wednesday.

As for guidance details, the 12Z model consensus suddenly jumped
toward the somewhat faster GFS for the shortwave entering the West
by the start of the period early Saturday and the new 00Z runs are
holding fairly close to that idea. The average of guidance is
still a little slower than the GFS but differences are trending
closer to the noise range. Upstream there is reasonable
clustering for a deep-layer low to settle just off the Pacific
Northwest from about late weekend into the first half of next
week, with gradually increasing uncertainty for the eastward
extent of the low and details of a possible reinforcing feature
late in the period. Recent GFS runs have been a bit on the
fast/strong side with shortwave energy ejecting into the West and
Plains early-mid week. Based on recent operational model runs
there is still at least a moderate signal for what could be a
fairly strong system over the Northern Plains but with a fair
amount of variability/spread for specifics. Overall an
operational model blend trending to a model/mean mix (including
some 18Z parallel GFS to tone down some operational run specifics
especially late in the period) represented consensus evolution
well. This yielded a solution perhaps slightly on the
conservative side for the late period Plains system while awaiting
improved agreement/stability on specifics.

...Weather/Threats Highlights...

Systems carried within the mean trough aloft near the West Coast
will support an unsettled period with multiple episodes of rain
and higher elevation snow from the Pacific Northwest into northern
California and Sierra Nevada. Precipitation could be moderate to
locally heavy at times with highest five-day totals (perhaps
reaching several inches) most likely over southwest Oregon into
northern California. The Interior West and Rockies should also
see periods of precipitation though with less extreme totals.
Expect precipitation to expand across the Plains and east-central
U.S. with a potential Tuesday-Wednesday system, with rain and
thunderstorms in the warm sector and some wintry weather possible
over the extreme northern tier depending on how the system evolves.

Weakening Southern Plains upper low energy dropping toward the
Gulf Coast by early Saturday and then becoming absorbed into the
longwave East Coast trough will support fast moving Gulf of Mexico
into Atlantic low pressure. Most associated rainfall should be
over the Florida Peninsula with moderate to perhaps locally heavy
rainfall possible over northern/central areas with the best
interaction of daytime heating, available moisture, and lift.
This wave will then deepen and move well offshore while cool high
pressure builds over the eastern U.S.

Much above normal temperatures over the Northern Plains this
weekend, reaching 10-25F above normal, will gradually extend
eastward into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with less extreme
warmth also reaching into the Northeast by late in the period.
Some daily records for highs and/or warm lows will be possible.
By next Tuesday-Wednesday well above normal readings for morning
lows in particular will extend well southward over the Plains and
Mississippi Valley as Gulf inflow increases. Elsewhere, a cooling
trend toward moderately below normal readings will spread across
the western U.S. during the period. East Coast states will be
chilly during the weekend with highs 5-10F or so below normal and
then trend warmer.




A busy week of local, regional and even NATIONAL media interviews following filing of lawsuit against Mayor Lovely Warren...


A week after "the calamity" that derailed my nearly 20 year career in television meteorology, on January 15th 2019, my wife and I decided I should get back to doing what I love, THE WEATHER... and just like that, BOOM, #WxLIVE came alive!

I'm so thrilled to be able to continue to share my love for weather with so many great Rochesterians and Western New Yorkers... and the best part is that I get to do it with my truely lovely bride of 17 years by my side. 

In the heart of what we do, you'll find passion for weather, faith and community as #AKALisaRay and myself LIVE stream the program across multiple social media platforms including Facebook and YouTube. In addition to daily radar and forecast updates for Rochester and Western New York, you'll get to experience weather and family entertainment all at the same time... #Weathertainment!

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Jeremy and Lisa Rae Kappell


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